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The Northern Forest, which spans Northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, is being pulled in three directions. Many people want healthier ecosystems, more recreational areas, and bigger, older trees. Many people also want a thriving forest-based industry and the jobs that come with it. At the same time, urban growth and fragmentation of forestlands may be reducing the forest base.
How, then, is the future likely to unfold as the increasing industrial and environmental demands run up against a limited or even shrinking forest base? What system-wide signals maintain the long-term balance between the forest resource and the mill capacity? What actions or policies would improve that balance?
In order to address these questions, a team from Sustainability Institute has been working with The Northern Forest Center and a cross-stakeholder advisory group from the region to build and continuously update a "system dynamics" simulation model of the long term interaction between the region's forest, landowners, mills, and markets.
The latest version of the model works like a "flight simulator", helping groups of people to explore a wide range of "what-if" questions - first in group discussion and then by running the simulation model. What if the region bans exports of sawlogs to Canada? What if small, private landowners adopt longer planning horizons? What if more land goes into reserve? What if technical innovation in mills booms? What if urban growth accelerates? Or if forest growth slows?
One inputs the various tests into the model by way of the simulator's "control panel."
While the list of possible model tests is extensive, the simulator is not a crystal ball. Instead, it is a tool that, with competent facilitation, can help diverse groups of people engage in effective conversations about the system-wide forces driving change across the economy and environment. Better conversation grounded in analysis leads to better shared understanding across groups, which, in turn, leads to better future decisions for the region.
Just as the simulator is not a crystal ball, it is not a "black box." By mapping the inter-relationships of the system on flip charts, people can trace "what-if" questions through the model and come to understand why the system reacts, or doesn't, to a given change.
Sustainability Institute is prepared to work with other organizations in a variety of ways:
For more information, contact the modelers and workshop facilitators:
| Andrew Jones and Don Seville (828) 236-0884 apjones@sustainer.org |
Sustainability Institute 3 Linden Road Hartland, VT 05048 www.sustainer.org |
| The Sustainability Institute was founded in 1996 by Dr. Donella Meadows. It is a think-do tank dedicated to sustainable resource use, sustainable economics, and sustainable community. The Northern Forest Systems Modeling project has been supported by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the Turner Foundation, and Wallace Global Fund, and the Switzer Environmental Leadership Program Fund of the New Hampshire Charitable Foundation. | Return to Sustainability Institute |